Hole Theory

 Imagine you are a pilot in World War Two, flying a bomber plane over enemy territory. You know that your plane is vulnerable to enemy fire, and that many of your fellow pilots never make it back to base. How do you survive?

This is a question that mathematician Abraham Wald had to answer when he was asked to help the American military improve their planes' armor. He looked at the data of the planes that returned from combat, and noticed a pattern: they had bullet holes in certain areas, such as the wings, the tail gunner, and the center of the body. The military wanted to reinforce those areas with extra armor, but Wald had a different idea.

He suggested that they put extra armor where the bullet holes weren't. Why? Because he realized that the planes that returned were the survivors, and that the bullet holes they had showed where a plane could be hit and still fly. The planes that didn't return were the ones that were hit in other areas, such as the engine or the cockpit. Those areas were critical for survival, and needed more protection.

Wald's idea was based on a concept called survivorship bias, which is the tendency to focus only on the successful cases and ignore the failures. Survivorship bias can lead us to draw wrong conclusions from incomplete data, and make us overestimate our chances of success.

For example, if we only study successful entrepreneurs or startups, we might think that success is easy or common, and ignore all the factors that led to failure for many others. Or if we only read positive reviews of a product or service, we might think that it is flawless or perfect, and overlook the negative feedback that was deleted or hidden.

Survivorship bias can also affect our personal decisions and goals. We might compare ourselves to people who achieved fame or fortune, and think that we can do the same if we follow their advice or habits. But we might not see the whole picture of their struggles, challenges, luck, or opportunities that helped them along the way.

To avoid survivorship bias, we need to look at both sides of the coin: success and failure. We need to examine all the data available, not just the ones that confirm our beliefs or expectations. We need to ask ourselves: what are we missing? What are we not seeing? What are we not hearing?

By doing this, we can improve our critical thinking skills and make better decisions based on reality, not illusions.

Empati, Berdiri Di Posisi Liyan

Sebagai manusia, kita tentu nyaris setiap saat melihat dunia dari sudut pandang diri kita sendiri. Namun demikian, terkadang kita juga harus mampu melihat melalui perspektif orang lain, atau berempati. Empati adalah kemampuan untuk menempatkan diri pada posisi orang lain, memahami dan berbagi perasaan mereka, baik yang baik maupun yang buruk. Ini adalah kualitas yang kita semua miliki tetapi mungkin tidak selalu digunakan.

Berempati berarti memahami bagaimana perasaan orang lain tanpa menghakimi atau meremehkan. Kita dapat mendengarkan dan benar-benar mendengar apa yang mereka coba komunikasikan, memungkinkan kita untuk menghargai kehidupan melalui mata mereka. Pengetahuan ini dapat membantu kita menjadi teman, anggota keluarga, atau bahkan orang asing yang lebih baik di komunitas kita sendiri.

Melatih empati juga dapat membawa penerimaan yang lebih besar terhadap diri kita sendiri dan orang lain dengan menghubungkan kita melintasi batas fisik, emosional, dan mental. Entah itu kegembiraan atas kesuksesan seorang teman atau kesedihan atas peristiwa yang sulit—kita memiliki kekuatan untuk melakukan perjalanan ke perspektif yang berbeda dan merasakan kasih sayang satu sama lain. Mampu melihat dari pandangan ini memberikan pikiran terbuka untuk solusi yang dapat membantu kita bersatu alih-alih memisahkan kita.

Di saat-saat ketika emosi terasa terlalu besar untuk diungkapkan dengan kata-kata, menghabiskan waktu dengan berkonsentrasi pada sudut pandang orang lain dapat memberikan wawasan baru yang dapat mengubah situasi di hadapan Anda. Ketika kita membiarkan diri kita memiliki ruang empati semacam ini dalam hidup kita, kita membuka pikiran dan hati kita lebih dalam ke dalam hubungan yang bermakna yang didasarkan pada pemahaman kebutuhan satu sama lain.